SpaceX Is in QQQ, Not the S&P 500. Anthropic Is Next, 2026

SpaceX has been in the Nasdaq-100 since July 7, 2026. It closed at $160.42 the day before the index funds had to buy it and $143.49 on September 15, so the stock is down 10.6% since the forced buying started. Here's the thing though. Your 401k probably never bought it. The S&P 500 said no, and that's where most retirement money actually sits. Anthropic is the next one through the door, and OpenAI just stepped out of the line until 2027.

What the Data Shows

SpaceX priced at $135 on June 12, 2026 and raised $75 billion, the biggest IPO ever. It closed the first day at $160.95 and topped out at $211.39 on June 16, 2 trading days later. Nasdaq's fast-entry rule, live since May 1, let it into the Nasdaq-100 after 15 trading days instead of the old 3-month wait. CNBC reported the index funds started buying after the July 6 close at a weight under 1%, and Nasdaq didn't remove anyone to make room. The stock closed at $149.47 on July 7, fell to $108.27 by August 5, and sits at $143.49 now. That's still 6.3% above the IPO price and 32% below the June 16 high.

Now the part the videos skip. S&P Dow Jones Indices voted down its own fast-track proposal on June 4, 2026. The S&P 500 still requires 12 months of trading and 4 straight quarters of positive GAAP earnings, so SpaceX can't join before mid-2027 at the earliest. SpotGamma tracked it: SPY, VOO and IVV sat this one out. ICI puts 401k assets at $9.9 trillion as of March 31, 2026, and the 2 biggest buckets are S&P 500 index funds and target-date funds. That money is heavy in the same 10 stocks I wrote about in August, 37% of the index, but it doesn't own SpaceX, and it can't own Anthropic on day 1 either.

On size, the dot-com comparison holds up. Jay Ritter's IPO data shows all 380 IPOs in 2000 raised $64.8 billion combined. Run that through CPI, 172.2 in 2000 to 335.0 in August 2026, and it's about $126 billion in today's dollars. SpaceX alone took $75 billion.

Anthropic confidentially filed its S-1 on June 1 at a $965 billion valuation. CNBC reported on July 15 that bankers were lining up investor meetings, and Dealroom's tracker has it at an October listing raising more than $60 billion. 2 companies, more money than the entire class of 2000. OpenAI is out for now. Sam Altman told Fortune on September 12 that going public in 2026 would be "ill-advised" and pointed to 2027.

Why It Matters for Your Portfolio

If you own QQQ or QQQM, you own SpaceX at under 1% and you'll own Anthropic within about 3 weeks of its first trade if the fast-entry rule holds. If you own an S&P 500 fund or a target-date fund, you don't, and you won't for at least a year. So the "401k exit liquidity" story is really a Nasdaq-100 story, and so far that trade has lost money: the index bought at $160 on July 6 and holds $143 today. Meanwhile the S&P 500 funds that skipped it have their own problem, which is 37% in 10 names. Pick your concentration.

I hold $MSFT, $AMZN and $META in my position account. I don't own SpaceX and I'm not buying it here. I'd rather own the companies selling compute to these labs than the labs themselves at these prices.

What I'm Watching

First is the Anthropic S-1 hitting EDGAR, the filing I covered on September 3. SpaceX went from public S-1 on May 20 to first trade on June 12, 23 days, then 15 trading days to the index. If Anthropic's public filing shows up in September, QQQ is buying it before Thanksgiving.

Second is the SpaceX lock-up. The standard 180 days from June 12 lands on December 9, 2026, and the prospectus lets some pre-IPO holders sell earlier around quarterly results, so watch the float, not the headline date. If SPCX can't hold $135 into the lock-up, the index bid wasn't enough, and that's the read-through for Anthropic.

Disclosure: I hold $MSFT, $AMZN and $META as of September 2, 2026. I hold no position in SpaceX, Anthropic or OpenAI. Positions can change at any time after publication.

Related Reading: The S&P 500's Top 10 Is 37% and Mostly One Trade in 2026 and Anthropic's S-1 Is an Accounting Test for AI in 2026

Howard is a full-time trader based in New Jersey with 13 years of experience across Forex, crypto, equities, and futures. He started Position Note to document his trades and analysis in public. All positions are disclosed. Nothing here is personalized investment advice.