Market Notes


Market Notes

The Dollar's Second Life Is Being Built On Chain Now

The market is acting like AI is the whole story. I don't think so. AI is the visible trade. The deeper trade is the measuring stick: whether the dollar can extend its reserve-currency life through stablecoins, whether the world keeps moving reserves toward gold, and whether asset inflation is hiding how weak the real economy feels underneath. That's the part I care about here. Not the YouTube headline about "fake money." The cleaner version is this: prices look different depending on the measu
Market Notes

Your Index Fund Is About to Buy SpaceX Whether You Want It To

SpaceX is expected to price its IPO on June 11 and begin trading June 12 under the ticker SPCX. If it gets added to the Nasdaq-100 under Nasdaq's new fast-entry rules, anyone holding QQQ or a Nasdaq-100 tracker could own it shortly after the debut. You don't get a vote on that. The index decides, and the fund follows. What the Data Shows Nasdaq's rule change went into effect May 1. Under the new methodology, a newly public company can be evaluated after its seventh trading day and become eligi
Market Notes

The Dollar Trade Nobody’s Talking About in 2026

The most important financial story right now may not be tariffs. It may be what’s sitting behind them. Trump’s Beijing trip was framed publicly as trade. But the market signals underneath it point to something bigger: a possible attempt to weaken the dollar through gold, investment flows, and industrial policy instead of a direct currency deal. I don’t know if that deal gets done. Nobody outside the room does. But the fingerprints are worth watching. What the Data Shows The dollar has been w